The nation added about a half-million immigrants in 2007, down from about 1.8 million the year before, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Analyzing the newest census data, USA Today reports that immigrants are migrating in a pattern similar to those of the U.S.-born population, increasingly leaving congested, expensive coastal cities for smaller, middle-class metro areas in the South and Southwest. According to USA Today analysis:

North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas are among the states gaining the most natives and immigrants from other states. Both groups also are moving in substantial numbers to Sun Belt counties in smaller metropolitan areas: Mecklenburg (Charlotte); Tarrant (Fort Worth); Richland (Columbia, S.C.); Cobb and Gwinnett (Atlanta).

The top five states with the highest resident increases, according to USA Today:

• The largest U.S.-born increase in residents: North Carolina: 108,000; Texas: 92,000; South Carolina: 66,000; Arizona: 66,000; Georgia: 63,000.
• The largest immigrant increase in residents: Texas: 39,000; Georgia: 12,000; North Carolina: 11,000; Nevada: 11,000; Washington: 10,000.

Labels: census, demographics, Georgia, immigration, migration, north carolina, population, South Carolina, texas

Some pundits are still debating whether the South is politically important. But both Democrats and Republicans know that the future of Congress may depend on who can gain momentum in the South.

Why? Redistricting.

As we've reported before, the South is the fastest-growing region in the country -- and as a result, Southern states will gain up to nine Congressional seats and Electoral College votes after the 2010 Census, mostly at the expense of states in the Northeast.

But which party will benefit from the South's growing political clout? Sam Stein at The Huffington Post takes a look at the battles over redistricting that will happen after the 2010 Census.

The upshot: States vary widely in who draws up new district maps -- and therefore, determining whether new seats will favor Democrats or Republicans. But in all but eight states, governors play a decisive role, with the power to veto or otherwise influence redistricting decisions.

Right now, Republicans have a decisive edge, Stein reports:

[B]ecause of shifting populations, there is likely to be one more congressional seat added in Georgia, California, Nevada and Utah; possibly two more added in Florida and Arizona; and the chance of four more seats added in Texas. Every state on this list, except for Arizona, currently has a Republican governor. All but Utah will hold a gubernatorial election in 2010. If Republicans hold their power they will be well positioned.

Stein misses two more Southern states that others believe could likely add a Representative and elector to pick the 2012 president: North Carolina (which currently has a Democratic governor) and South Carolina (a Republican).

The current redistricting climate may favor Republicans, but many governor's races will be up for grabs in 2010 -- 36 to be exact, compared to just 11 this cycle. Stein also notes there will be more than 1,150 state senate races and more than 4,950 state house races held nationwide in 2010, which will impact post-Census redistricting.

Either way, whoever can win the state political battles of 2008 and 2010 in the South will see their national clout in Congress and the Electoral College significantly grow.

Labels: 2010 census, Congress, democracy north carolina, demographics, electoral college, Florida, Georgia, growth, redistricting, South Carolina, Southern Politics, texas

As the white-knuckle roller-coaster ride of the 2008 Democratic primary finally coasts to a stop, The New York Times offers a neat graphic display of how the voting unfolded in each state.

Using exit poll data, the Times lets you sort which demographic groups went for Clinton vs. Obama in each state; the criteria are gender, race (only black and white), age, income and education.

The results are fascinating, and reveal an interesting truth about the primaries: race and age were the two biggest dividers in the 2008 Democratic electorate:

* RACE: Sen. Obama carried the African-American vote in every single primary state, while Sen. Clinton carried the white vote in all but eight states.

* AGE: In the under-30 vote, Obama carried all but five states. He also won every state in age groups up to 59, although he only narrowly took the 45-59 group. Clinton, on the other hand, took all but six states in the 60+ age group.

As Facing South noted a year ago, the two issues are related: demographically, the younger the population -- including the voting population -- in the U.S., the more racially diverse it is.

But what about issues like gender and income? They were factors, but the exit polls show they weren't as big.

* GENDER: Clinton clearly did better with women voters -- but Obama also won the majority of women in 16 geographically diverse states. Obama took the male vote in all but nine states -- but there were another nine states where Clinton just barely lost men voters.

* INCOME: Income is especially interesting. The most evenly-divided demographic in the entire country are voters making less than $15,000 a year -- families in or near poverty. This group went for Clinton in 12 states, and Obama in 12 states.

Those making more than $15,000 trended towards Clinton, but Obama's showing was still respectable: Obama won the $15,000-$30,000 income group in 12 states, and the $30,000-$50,000 group in 16 states (six of those were Southern states with high African-American populations, but the rest weren't).

As we turn towards the general election, the question is: how will these demographics break down come November?

Labels: age, barack obama, demographics, Election 2008, exit polls, hillary clinton, new york times, race

As noted here recently, the South is experiencing explosive population growth and a changing demographic.

In this report, the Southern Regional Education Board takes a look at the implications for school systems around the South and concludes:

More than half of the nation’s population growth over the next 20 years will be in SREB states. The most dramatic increase will be in the Hispanic population. The preschool-to-college-age proportions of the population are expected to be similar to those today, however. The proportion of working-age adults will decline, and the proportion of older adults will rise.

These projected changes, when coupled with faster minority growth rates, imply ongoing educational challenges for the SREB states. The proportionally smaller working-age population will have to support an increasingly minority and low-income school population and a rapidly growing number of retirees.

States in the SREB region include Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia.

From 1997 to 2007, the overall growth in SREB states was 17% as compared to 13% nationwide. The four fastest growing SREB states from 1997 to 2007 were Georgia (27%), Florida (24%), Texas (24%), and North Carolina (22%).

It is interesting to note that two of these states, Texas and Florida (along with Tennessee) have no state income tax. They rely heavily on sales tax revenues which many experts say provide less elasticity in growing economies, making it harder for states to keep up funding for education and other government services.

Labels: demographics, education

The U.S. Census Bureau has released a new report today finding that nearly one in every 10 of the nation’s 3,141 counties has a population that is more than 50 percent minority.

The press release headline says More Than 300 Counties Now "Majority-Minority". It may be time for the Census Bureau to come up with a new term, like "minjority"?

According to the report, Claiborne County, Miss., had a population that was 85 percent black in 2006, which led the nation. All 50 counties with the highest percentage black population were in the South.

The AP files this report, noting that New Orleans and Orleans Parish recorded the biggest change, where the "share of non-Hispanic whites in Orleans Parish grew from 27 percent in 2005 to 34 percent in 2006, while the share of blacks dropped from about 68 percent to 59 percent."

Labels: demographics

The Emerging Democratic Majority website points to our recent post on the rapidly-changing demographics of the South -- namely, that half of Southern K-12 pupils are now students of color, driven by a surge in the region's Latino population.

As EMD notes, "The implications for immigration, education and tax policy should be huge in upcoming election cycles."

But who in the South is working to cultivate Latino political leadership and speak to the needs of the growing "new majority" in the region?

Labels: demographics, Southern Politics

It's no secret that the demographics of the South are rapidly changing. Here at Facing South we have been closely following the new, more racially and ethnically diverse South that is emerging -- and shifting more quickly than anywhere else in the country.

The latest evidence comes from the National Center for Education Statistics, which released their latest report yesterday The Condition of Education. The report charts trends in public schools from 1972 to 2005, when the latest data is available.

Here are some highlights on the changing racial trends in schools:

* Nationally, 42% of public school students were considered part of a racial or ethnic minority group in 2005, an increase from 22% of students in 1972. The growth of Latino students has been the biggest factor in this increase.

* 47% of the South's K-12 public school students are now "ethnic/racial minorities," up from 30% (mostly African-American) in 1972. The West is the only more diverse region, with 54% students of color.

* While the West has the highest number of students identified as "Hispanic" (37%), the South has seen the fastest growth: the proportion of Latino students has more than tripled in the South from 1972 to 2005, from 5% to over 18%.

Of course, the report doesn't look at private schools, making it an imperfect snapshot of the South's overall demographics. As studies have found, the South has seen the greatest growth in private education -- especially among white families attempting to escape public schooling, a factor in the re-segregation of Southern education.

But the overall picture is clear: the new generation of the South will look less and less like the old one.

Labels: demographics, immigration