UPDATE: I cross-posted this at DailyKos, where it's generating a lot of interesting debate. Go check it out.
Remember all that talk this spring about Obama "changing the election map?" The Wall Street Journal reports today that, with poll numbers tightening and McCain re-energized with new cash and a new running mate, Obama is going back to the old map:
Indeed, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe yesterday laid out a strategy that focuses on winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and New Mexico -- but acknowledged that that would only bring them to 264 Electoral College votes, six shy of the 270 needed to win. The remaining options:
A lurking question: if Obama pulls up stakes in North Carolina and other used-to-be-battlegrounds in the final weeks, what will that mean for down-ticket Democrats counting on his voter-turnout coattails? Or has the Obama base in those states already been energized?
Remember all that talk this spring about Obama "changing the election map?" The Wall Street Journal reports today that, with poll numbers tightening and McCain re-energized with new cash and a new running mate, Obama is going back to the old map:
Just a few months ago, [Obama] had unveiled a "50-state strategy" to mount a national campaign and dispatched scores of campaign workers to the Republican strongholds of Georgia, Montana, Indiana and North Carolina. This week, the campaign said it had abandoned an earlier advertising blitz in Georgia and pulled out some of its campaign staff.This means Obama is back to focusing on the states the have been battlegrounds in the last two election cycles -- and they're not in the South and West:
A campaign that visited nine states in mid-August has focused almost exclusively on three this month. Since closing out the convention, Sen. Obama will have held 21 campaign events through Tuesday, 18 of them in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. All three states went to either George W. Bush or John Kerry in 2004 by a margin of less than 4% -- and were won in relative squeakers in 2000.WSJ's Washington Wire confirmed yesterday that Obama was pulling out of Georgia, and that it signaled a growing pragmatism about Obama's chances in outlier states -- although some of the staff are going to North Carolina:
At the same time, the campaign is pulling back in Georgia, reassigning some of its Peach State staff to North Carolina, Plouffe said, and has stopped airing television advertisements there. The withdrawal is dramatic considering the amount of resources the Obama campaign dispatched to Georgia and throughout the South, with the hope that the large African-American and student population would put the Republican region in play.Campaign visits don't lie, but missing from the WSJ's analysis is Virginia, which remains a tight battleground where polls are trending in Obama's direction, or Florida.
Indeed, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe yesterday laid out a strategy that focuses on winning Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and New Mexico -- but acknowledged that that would only bring them to 264 Electoral College votes, six shy of the 270 needed to win. The remaining options:
What state will push Obama over the top? Plouffe offered an array of options all over the country, including Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Nevada, Florida or Ohio.Notice that North Carolina is off the list. CQ Politics suggests that Obama saw NC is a real possibility, investing heavily in the state, but couldn't break through:
Obama seems stuck at about 40 percent even though he "continues to invest millions of dollars in television, field operations and commit his personal time."So what of the two Southern states still in discussion? CQ Politics sees Florida as a toss-up and thinks Virginia "leans Republican." My hunch is that Obama sees it the other way around, and that's supported by Obama's campaign calendar: Obama did to a town hall meeting in Lebanon, Virginia yesterday; no events are scheduled for Florida.
A lurking question: if Obama pulls up stakes in North Carolina and other used-to-be-battlegrounds in the final weeks, what will that mean for down-ticket Democrats counting on his voter-turnout coattails? Or has the Obama base in those states already been energized?
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