Would Obama make the South competitive?
Mississippi voters head to the polls today, their 40 delegates -- 33 unpledged, seven supers -- suddenly important thanks to the tight Democratic race.
In a state where 55% of the Democratic primary electorate is African-American, Obama is heavily favored. If he wins, it will be Obama's fifth Deep South victory (he's taken Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina; Clinton succeeded in the periphery states of Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas).
Obama's ability to run up huge primary victories in the Deep South leads to a bigger question: could he make the South competitive for the Democrats?
A recent Wall Street Journal piece pointed out that even if Democratic prospects for winning Deep South states was low -- "White voters in Mississippi don't vote Democratic. They just don't," the oft-quoted Charlie Cook said -- Obama could still change the 2008 election dynamic.
Obama's high African-American voter turnout and cross-over appeal to independents -- combined with John McCain's questionable relationship with Southern evangelicals -- would at the very least force Republicans to invest precious resources in states that haven't been on their radar for years:
In a state where 55% of the Democratic primary electorate is African-American, Obama is heavily favored. If he wins, it will be Obama's fifth Deep South victory (he's taken Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina; Clinton succeeded in the periphery states of Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas).
Obama's ability to run up huge primary victories in the Deep South leads to a bigger question: could he make the South competitive for the Democrats?
A recent Wall Street Journal piece pointed out that even if Democratic prospects for winning Deep South states was low -- "White voters in Mississippi don't vote Democratic. They just don't," the oft-quoted Charlie Cook said -- Obama could still change the 2008 election dynamic.
Obama's high African-American voter turnout and cross-over appeal to independents -- combined with John McCain's questionable relationship with Southern evangelicals -- would at the very least force Republicans to invest precious resources in states that haven't been on their radar for years:
If Mr. Obama wins the nomination, it is far from certain that he could claim even a single Southern state. But even making the race there competitive would be a victory of sorts by forcing Mr. McCain to spend time and money defending states that other Republicans, including President Bush, were able to take for granted.UPDATE: MSNBC's First Read adds this:
In fact, Mississippi is one of those rare Southern states that might be in play in the general election if Obama becomes the nominee. One Dem statistician tells First Read that there are three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout): Georgia, Louisiana and, yes, Mississippi.
Labels: barack obama, Election 2008, john mccain, mississippi
3 Comments:
Yes, I think this is the important point. While Obama may not be able to take any of the "Deep South" states, he could make them competitive enough so that McCain would have to spend money in places he wouldn't have to worry about if Clinton is the nominee (Arkansas being an exception). However, Virginia would be competitive and (hold on to your hats) if the latest nationwide Survey USA state-by-state poll is anywhere near accurate... Obama might put TEXAS into play. McCain leads by only one point there, 47-46%. That would be huge.
Not to mention the wonderful image of having an African American presidential candidate stumping in the Deep South in front of cheering, multiracial crowds.
There are lots of moving pieces to this question, but the relevant factors seem to be: (1) How much can Obama push up African-American voter turnout in Southern states, (2) How many independents he can pull, and (3) How badly the disaffection between social conservatives and McCain will dampen turnout among this critical GOP Southern constituency.
All 3 would have to be relatively significant for the Dems to achieve upset wins in Deep South (and other Southern) states.
But the mere THREAT of competitiveness can change the whole dynamic of Election '08.
There's a pretty interesting analysis of Obama's chances in Mississippi against McCain here: http://centerpiece.blogspot.com
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