The South and the fall of the GOP coalition
Are we looking at the end of a political era?
When former Gov. Mike Huckabee swept the GOP's Southern primaries last week, I wrote about how his dominance -- and Sen. John McCain's failure -- in conservative states pointed to a fracturing of the Republican alliance, a coalition that has held sway since at least 1980.
Today we have even more evidence that the GOP coalition is unraveling -- and I think it's significant that those pulling the threads hail from the South.
First came the announcement by Rep. Ron Paul of Texas on his website this weekend that, despite the fact that "the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero," he refuses to officially quit the race. Most importantly, he still refuses to endorse McCain. Why? As Paul told the Baltimore Sun:
That Paul is, at least for the moment, saying that his wing of the party is refusing to swing behind McCain spells big trouble for Republicans -- not only this fall, but in the long-term.
The Republicans' other solid base -- religious conservatives, or "values voters" -- are also refusing to go along. Gov. Huckabee, the religious right's standard-bearer in 2008, has again brushed off suggestions that he quit the race, pushing his real maverick crusade as far as he can.
For Republicans, the question is this: are Paul and Huckabee just stubborn personalities causing trouble in one election cycle? Or is the fracturing of the GOP coalition -- prompted by issues like Iraq and immigration, among other things -- a more long-term problem?
For years, Republicans have been able to keep anti-government libertarians, fundamentalist Christians, big business conservatives and other wings of the GOP in harmony -- or at least keep them in line.
The alliance is falling apart now, thanks to Southern insurgents. How easy will it be to put back together again after 2008?
When former Gov. Mike Huckabee swept the GOP's Southern primaries last week, I wrote about how his dominance -- and Sen. John McCain's failure -- in conservative states pointed to a fracturing of the Republican alliance, a coalition that has held sway since at least 1980.
Today we have even more evidence that the GOP coalition is unraveling -- and I think it's significant that those pulling the threads hail from the South.
First came the announcement by Rep. Ron Paul of Texas on his website this weekend that, despite the fact that "the chances of a brokered convention are nearly zero," he refuses to officially quit the race. Most importantly, he still refuses to endorse McCain. Why? As Paul told the Baltimore Sun:
"I cannot support anybody with the foreign policy he [John McCain] advocates, you know, perpetual war ... That is just so disturbing to me."As Paul's amazing fundraising numbers show, the 10-term Texas Congressman had and has a real base: it's the libertarian wing of the Republican party, one of the two strong ideological currents that propelled the conservative movement to dominance over the last three decades.
That Paul is, at least for the moment, saying that his wing of the party is refusing to swing behind McCain spells big trouble for Republicans -- not only this fall, but in the long-term.
The Republicans' other solid base -- religious conservatives, or "values voters" -- are also refusing to go along. Gov. Huckabee, the religious right's standard-bearer in 2008, has again brushed off suggestions that he quit the race, pushing his real maverick crusade as far as he can.
For Republicans, the question is this: are Paul and Huckabee just stubborn personalities causing trouble in one election cycle? Or is the fracturing of the GOP coalition -- prompted by issues like Iraq and immigration, among other things -- a more long-term problem?
For years, Republicans have been able to keep anti-government libertarians, fundamentalist Christians, big business conservatives and other wings of the GOP in harmony -- or at least keep them in line.
The alliance is falling apart now, thanks to Southern insurgents. How easy will it be to put back together again after 2008?
Labels: conservatism, john mccain, mike huckabee, religious right, ron paul, Southern Politics
1 Comments:
Help us convince the GOP nominee to pick Governor Haley Barbour as his vice-presidential running mate; and help convince Haley to say, “YES!”
Our goal is to deliver a petition signed by 50,000 GOP supporters to the presumptive GOP nominee and to Governor Barbour by March 1, 2008.
Visit www.drafthaley.com for more information and to sign the petition.
Post a Comment
Return to Facing South's main page