The immigration debate: It's about the future of politics
U.S. News & World Report observes today that the media is "reveling" in the bi-partisan immigration reform bill being pushed by unlikely allies like Sens. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), with support from President Bush.Outside Washington, the lions and lambs aren't getting too cozy yet. While beltway pundits are applauding the "rare Capitol Hill demonstration of bipartisanship," advocacy groups on the left and right are firing up their email lists and fax machines in opposition -- immigrant rights groups, because the bill creates a group of second-class "guest workers" who will be kicked out once businesses don't want them anymore; anti-immigrant groups, because it "rewards illegal behavior" and in cases amounts to dreaded "amnesty."
Which begs the question: why would Bush and leading Democrats push an issue that seems destined to alienate key elements of their base, with 2008 just around the corner? A small piece in the New York Times this week offers some useful background: it has a lot to do with the future of politics.
The Times notes that, as has often happened in this country, there's a large gap between young and old voters. But the Times also points out that now, there's a new layer to the "generation gap" -- it's also a race gap. Older voters tend to be whiter, while the future voters of the country are more Latino, African-American and Asian-American:
More than 20 percent of children in the United States either are foreign-born or have a parent who was born abroad. Nearly half the children under age 5 are Hispanic, black or Asian. [...]We've written a lot at Facing South about the South's fast-changing demographics and what it means for Southern politics (and by extension national politics, since it will dramatically increase the South's already-significant clout). The Times drives these points home again:
According to the latest figures, 80 percent of Americans over age 60 are non-Hispanic whites, compared with only 60 percent among those in their 20s and 30s, and 58 percent among people younger than 20.
The changes have potential implications for national politics ... Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee have recorded the greatest percentage gains in their Hispanic population since 2000, with the biggest numerical gains, predictably, registered by California, Texas and Florida.How does this relate to the debate firing up around immigration reform? It means that both parties can see the writing on the wall -- and no doubt want to be remembered as the ones that gave citizenship to several million Latino and immigrant voters, no matter how flawed the legislation.
An interesting sidenote: the Times also speculates that, on the state level, the generational race gap may be deepening the divide over political priorities, such as the willingness of older white voters to support public education. By way of evidence, they note that ethnically diverse states are seeing major battles over school spending develop; by contrast, "the three most homogeneous states — Maine, Vermont and West Virginia — spent the highest proportion of their gross state product on public education."
UPDATE: For more on why Democrats see opportunity in immigration reform, see the analysis by Ruy Teixiera of Donkey Rising. The focus is on Western states, but given the explosive growth in the South, the same could be said there.
Labels: immigration, Southern Politics
4 Comments:
To clear up one piece of confusion that came up at DKos, where I cross-posted this. This post in no way gets into the pros/cons of the immigration bill -- others can do that much more capably. This is just showing a key reason why both parties have a political stake in finding "consensus" on immigration reform. Given the rapid change in U.S. demographics -- especially in the South and West -- both clearly see an interest in being the group that stepped forward to support reform. Other forces (especially economic) are in play as well.
I think that the Latino political mobilization will be a double-edged sword for Democrats in the medium term. The Republicans will inevitably respond with race-baiting, but that is a ploy that will peel off a lot of white voters who have been drifting back to us (or at least the away from the R's) last few years. It's sad, but we can't ever underestimated the power of racial politics.
With Latino population incresing to 60 million by 2020 (45-50 now), is cautionary to say be nice to the peope you disdain and oppress now, for they are the ones youl will be looking up when the time comes.
The whole continent from Tierra del Fuego to the Rio Grande has been expoited in each & every way by european inmigrants and their descendants imasquerading as the rulers of this continent...
Their vices, demises and ambitiousness turned
the Central & Southern parts of the continent into the north's cesspool, keeping a tight whip and great economical duress, always taking and very seldon giving...
Yes, the Inmigratio controversy hauled out the worst in the descendants of the original european inmigrants whom due to their many political and economical devises have engaged in a 200 year politics of hate and divisionism against the TRUE owners of this land...
Besides, our ancestors and NorthAmerican Indians were here before european inmigrants sat foot on this lands.
And when some european inmigrants (Spaniars mostly) "mingled" with our natives, Hispanics or latinos populated the continent since 1492.
CA, AZ, NM, OR, TX and FL were settled and founded by Hispanics long before the before the Pilgrins's arrival and 45 millions of us leave in avery one of the continental USA...
Really? who are the foreigner/inmigrants?
Simon Bolivar said it best, european inmigrants are this continent's CAIN! Remember Cain?
The time has come to beging damage control and better human relations in order to bridge the great divide of hate & learn to live and share the land as God intended to be....
Can north American Indians forget heir "Trail of
Tears".
et tu european inmigrant !
the generational race gap may be deepening the divide over political priorities, such as the willingness of older white voters to support public education. By way of evidence, they note that ethnically diverse states are seeing major battles over school spending develop; by contrast, "the three most homogeneous states — Maine, Vermont and West Virginia — spent the highest proportion of their gross state product on public education."
Regression analysis of county expenditure on public services, including education, in Texas has consistently shown that, controlling for poverty, avergage income, & many other factors, a large share of the variation is due to differences in the relative number of Latinos. So, e.g., all things being equal, Anglo communities have been much less willing to spend on education when there are a large number of Latino students.
I don't know if there are comparable results for CA, but the whole country is in the process of conducting a huge natural experiment on the matter.
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