In South Carolina, the race is on

As R. Neal reported yesterday, the South's influence on the presidential primaries is poised to grow -- and setting the tone will be South Carolina. The Democratic primary will be January 29, 2008 -- the first in the South and fourth in the country -- and Republicans soon follow on February 2.

South Carolina, considered a GOP "safe state" and ignored by both parties, is "discovered" every four years -- candidates set up circus-tent campaigns, quickly press for votes, and just as abruptly leave once the primaries are over.

But in 2008, the state's front-runner status, combined with a competitive field of candidates on both sides will take the South Carolina primary spectacle to a whole new level.

The Republican contest will be interesting, with a crew of non-Southern candidates looking for ways to move a state party heavily influenced by the Christian Right. In 2000, Bush's win in South Carolina was the knockout punch for Sen. John McCain, and included such tactics as spreading a rumor that McCain had fathered an illegitimate black baby.

The GOP candidates, which have positioned themselves to the middle on social issues, will also struggle with issues like the Confederate flag flying on South Carolina's State House grounds (it was moved from the top). McCain struggled with the issue in 2000, and according to the Detroit Free Press, it's proving to be a challenge again:

When John McCain campaigned in the 2000 South Carolina primary ... he said [the Confederate flag] was a matter for state officials to decide.

Later, McCain said the flag should be removed. "I feared that if I answered honestly, I could not win the South Carolina primary," he admitted.

And now?

Danny Diaz, a McCain spokesman, gave a brief statement when asked if the senator thinks the flag should be removed: "A bipartisan solution to this issue was developed by the General Assembly, and the senator applauds their efforts."

On the Democratic side, the favorite is still native son John Edwards, who won South Carolina in 2000. But the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns aren't giving an inch. Clinton has been the most aggressive in lining up endorsers among state politicians, but in Obama's first campaign stop at the Convention Center in Columbia, SC, it may have backfired -- and gave the advantage to Obama. Slate reports:

Earlier in the week, African-American state Sen. Robert Ford announced he was backing Hillary Clinton. "Everybody else on the ballot is doomed," Ford said, explaining what would happen if Obama were nominated. "Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he's black and he's at the top of the ticket—we'd lose the House, the Senate, and the governors and everything."

Ford's endorsement, along with that of another prominent African-American official, was timed to steal a little of Obama's thunder and presumably contribute to another round of stories about whether he could appeal to black voters. Instead, it was a gift. "I've been reading the papers in South Carolina," Obama said before using a preacher's cadence to paraphrase Ford's remarks. "Can't have a black man at the top of the ticket." The crowd booed. "But I know this: that when folks were saying, We're going to march for our freedom, they said, You can't do that." The audience roared. "When somebody said, You can't sit at the lunch counter. … You can't do that. We did. And when somebody said, Women belong in the kitchen not in the board room. You can't do that. Yes we can." (At this point I can't reconstruct the remarks from my tape recorder because the screaming was too loud.) The crowd responded by chanting: "Yes, we can."

Thanks to this amazing bit of political Ju-Jitsu, Slate reports, "Obama is going to gain more from Ford's endorsement than Hillary Clinton is." And apparently Obama's next day went even better.

South Carolina -- and the presidency -- is up for grabs.

Labels: Election 2008, South Carolina