Tennessee Senate race: the morning after
Democrate Harold Ford Jr. ran one of the best campaigns in the modern history of Tennessee politics to make this race so close (Corker 51% v. Ford 48%), but his Republican opponent Bob Corker's campaign was better by just enough. Few would have expected this way back in April when State Sen. Rosalind Kurita (D-Clarksville) dropped out of the Democratic primary leaving Ford unopposed.
Turnout was key for both sides -- low turnout for Democrats, and big turnout for Republicans. Republicans had an extra hurdle because many in their ranks are dissatisfied with the current crop in D.C. and either crossed over or abstained. But the well-oiled GOP machine worked, as usual. The anti-gay marriage amendment probably helped, too.
The mainstream media and the liberal blogs will likely point to the results and say that Tennessee is a backwoods racist enclave. If they were from Tennessee, though, they'd realize that for a black man, from Memphis, named Ford no less, running a statewide campaign as a Democrat with a ten year Congressional record against a well-funded opponent with no record to defend, to get nearly 875,000 votes is quite an accomplishment.
Race was only one "obstacle" to overcome, yet Ford got 150,000 more votes than Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Bob Clement in 2002, and nearly as many votes as the now senior Tennessee U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander in that same election. Race likely played some small role, but only the bigots know for sure.
So what happened?
Some point to the "Memphis Meltdown," when Ford confronted Corker in the Memphis airport parking lot as Corker arrived for a press conference. It could have gone both ways, with the MTV crowd reacting favorably to the "in your face" attitude v. more mature and serious voters being put off by it. In that sense it should have been a wash, but unfortunately the MTV crowd doesn't vote.
The negative attack ads against Ford seemed to be a factor. The nastier they got the better Corker's numbers got in the polls, so everyone generally agrees they work. Maybe Ford should have hit back harder.
And perhaps Ford should have attacked the generic GOP record harder, especially on Iraq and foreign policy. It worked in other states, even against incumbents. He was fairly effective on this in the debates, but that was early on and two of the debates competed with UT football games, so in the end it was all about the ads. From that point on, there wasn't much talk about the issues.
The Ford campaign must also wonder if running so hard to the right cost him some votes among the Democratic Party faithful. Likely so, but it's doubtful that it cost him 50,000 votes. It may have cost the Democrats some turnout, though.
Ford's reluctance to support State Sen. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) as the successor to Ford's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 9th district likely cost him a few votes there, too. (Ford's brother Jake was running in that race as an "independent Democrat" after losing in the primary. He lost again to Cohen, who is white, single, and Jewish, 60% to 22%.)
At any rate, many Tennessee Democrats were going along with the program for the greater good of a Congressional majority. There probably won't be any true liberal Democrats elected to statewide office in Tennessee for another generation or two. And as many pundits noted, when faced with a choice between a faux-Republican and the real thing, Republican voters will go for the real thing every time, and they will get out to the polls.
So there isn't any one thing you can point to, except that Ford ran a great campaign and almost pulled it off against all odds.
Elsewhere, Democrats are looking at a majority in the House and are one ballot recount and a lawsuit away from a majority in the Senate. And who knows? Maybe some of the national attention focused on Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee helped Democrats in other states.
Turnout was key for both sides -- low turnout for Democrats, and big turnout for Republicans. Republicans had an extra hurdle because many in their ranks are dissatisfied with the current crop in D.C. and either crossed over or abstained. But the well-oiled GOP machine worked, as usual. The anti-gay marriage amendment probably helped, too.
The mainstream media and the liberal blogs will likely point to the results and say that Tennessee is a backwoods racist enclave. If they were from Tennessee, though, they'd realize that for a black man, from Memphis, named Ford no less, running a statewide campaign as a Democrat with a ten year Congressional record against a well-funded opponent with no record to defend, to get nearly 875,000 votes is quite an accomplishment.
Race was only one "obstacle" to overcome, yet Ford got 150,000 more votes than Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Bob Clement in 2002, and nearly as many votes as the now senior Tennessee U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander in that same election. Race likely played some small role, but only the bigots know for sure.
So what happened?
Some point to the "Memphis Meltdown," when Ford confronted Corker in the Memphis airport parking lot as Corker arrived for a press conference. It could have gone both ways, with the MTV crowd reacting favorably to the "in your face" attitude v. more mature and serious voters being put off by it. In that sense it should have been a wash, but unfortunately the MTV crowd doesn't vote.
The negative attack ads against Ford seemed to be a factor. The nastier they got the better Corker's numbers got in the polls, so everyone generally agrees they work. Maybe Ford should have hit back harder.
And perhaps Ford should have attacked the generic GOP record harder, especially on Iraq and foreign policy. It worked in other states, even against incumbents. He was fairly effective on this in the debates, but that was early on and two of the debates competed with UT football games, so in the end it was all about the ads. From that point on, there wasn't much talk about the issues.
The Ford campaign must also wonder if running so hard to the right cost him some votes among the Democratic Party faithful. Likely so, but it's doubtful that it cost him 50,000 votes. It may have cost the Democrats some turnout, though.
Ford's reluctance to support State Sen. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) as the successor to Ford's seat in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 9th district likely cost him a few votes there, too. (Ford's brother Jake was running in that race as an "independent Democrat" after losing in the primary. He lost again to Cohen, who is white, single, and Jewish, 60% to 22%.)
At any rate, many Tennessee Democrats were going along with the program for the greater good of a Congressional majority. There probably won't be any true liberal Democrats elected to statewide office in Tennessee for another generation or two. And as many pundits noted, when faced with a choice between a faux-Republican and the real thing, Republican voters will go for the real thing every time, and they will get out to the polls.
So there isn't any one thing you can point to, except that Ford ran a great campaign and almost pulled it off against all odds.
Elsewhere, Democrats are looking at a majority in the House and are one ballot recount and a lawsuit away from a majority in the Senate. And who knows? Maybe some of the national attention focused on Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee helped Democrats in other states.
6 Comments:
Thanks for your analysis. It is good, but I don't fully agree with it. I’ll share one conservative’s perspective.
Ford ran a great race. Corker did not; he went from bad to fair at the end.
The 2 biggest strikes against Ford were (1) he has historically been more liberal than the vast majority of Tennesseans, and (2) Tennesseans outside Memphis distrust the Ford family.
Harold, Jr did a magnificent job of downplaying the second issue. I doubt most voters across Tennessee - liberal, moderate, or conservative - were thinking of Uncle John “Yeah, send me a little money” Ford. Delaying the trial helped.
I believe race was an issue for very few. It would probably be about as much of a problem for votes from Democrats as Republicans. Almost all TN Republicans would be thrilled with an African American as sharp as Ford but with conservative beliefs.
One of the issues that made the election as close as it was is that at least half of the Republicans were merely willing to put up with Corker. I would have been excited to have a candidate like Ed Bryant - more conservative, articulate, and can really address issues. Corker has a lot to prove to TN Republicans.
I think the attack ads did not help Corker. Corker commercials merely said “Ford is bad” and “I am whiney.” If anything they gave me a sense of embarrassment to be a Republican and sympathy for Ford. Ford’s commercials presented a statesman in the making.
Harold Ford, Jr., has a bright future in Tennessee politics. If he can convince Tennesseans that he is a moderate through and through (not just during campaigns), he will end up being a U.S. Senator from Tennessee.
Bill, interesting perspectives.
If Corker's ads weren't working for the rank and file, I wonder who they were working for, because his numbers certainly went up after they started running.
I guess another factor not explored was the fact that Corker had to fight a bitter three-way primary while Ford kept his powder dry. Corker seemed to deflate after the primary just as Ford hit the ground running.
So perhaps it wasn't the ads so much as Corker getting his second wind, not to mention retooling his campaign and bringing in Ingram. Just in time, maybe.
I would have been excited to have a candidate like Ed Bryant
If the GOP had nominated Bryant, it wouldn't have been this close. Bryant would have likely cleaned Ford's clock.
To add to Bill's comments, many Memphians don't trust Ford's family, either. His aunt was also facing sentencing for election fraud yesterday, and I'm sure that didn't help. Combine that with Ford's refusal to support Cohen (looking like a favor to his brother and a thinly veiled attempt at perpetuating the Ford machine), and Ford's greatest source of support, which could have been liberal Memphis, eroded. Not exponentially, but enough.
That said, I agree that Junior's showing in the race was phenomenal. When I first heard he was running for the Senate, I laughed. Out loud. That he was able to come within 5 points of Corker speaks to Ford's political skill.
And yes, Ed Bryant would have cleaned his clock.
The Ford family needs to learn that the Black vote is not an assured one. Corruption only helps those in power, and sooner or later the voters will wise up. Or should I say Rise up?
The family has, as a whole, been coasting on name recognition and contacts for decades. It will take some notice for the Ford machine to get the message, though electing Cohen over Jake Ford in the 9th may get through.
The problem is making the message consistent over time. I remember hearing all kinds of people gripe about Harold Sr as I was growing up, but the folks who elected him said that he always took their calls. I don't know that he (Sr) was ever able to accomplish all that much on their behalf, but he would listen, and for a number of people it was enough to know that the congressman would take the call.
Perhaps that will change now. With a non-Ford representing the 9th for the first time I can remember, maybe people will get a taste of something more, and like it, and demand more of it. That'll mean reelecting Cohen against whomever the Fords may put up in '08. Only time will tell.
To add to Bill's comments, many Memphians don't trust Ford's family, either..
Ford won 63% of the vote in Shelby County. The African American population in Shelby County is approximately 49% of the population. I'd say a lot of somebody in Shelby County liked Ford.
Tennesseans outside Memphis distrust the Ford family..
I would bet that most Tennesseans outside Memphis knew next to nothing of the Ford family until the Republicans tried to "inform" them during the campaign.
As I heard on the radio, the upper east most portion of TN is closer to the Canadian border than Memphis. In my opinion, East Tennesseans don't spend much time thinking about Memphis except for the Elvis factor.
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