Election watch: Tennessee the last stand for the GOP Southern Strategy?

The latest developments in the Tennessee U.S. Senate race still do not seem to give either candidate a clear edge, and there are too many moving parts in this race to single out any one deciding factor.

On Tuesday, a CNN/Opinion Research poll had Republican Bob Corker ahead 52 to Democrat Harold Ford Jr.'s 44. This was the widest margin in any poll to date and the first time Corker had broken through 50% in any poll. A Reuters/Zogby poll released today has an even wider margin with Corker ahead by 10 points.

But other polls during the same period as the CNN poll suggest the race is still much closer than that. Rasmussen had it 49 to 47 for Corker and Zogby Interactive had it 49 to 48 for Corker. Ford's internal polls show Ford with a 5 point lead during the same period. A week earlier, SurveyUSA had it tied and another internal poll showed Ford up by 2 points.

Ford's internal polls suggest a possible backlash against Corker's "call me" attack ad (discussed previously here and here). In the before and after Rasmussen polls, however, Corker remained steady at 49 and picked up two points in the Zogby Interactive.

The CNN poll has been somewhat dismissed as an outlier by political science professors at the University of Tennessee and Vanderbilt University, who cited the other polls as evidence. One problem they noted is that cell-phone users are excluded, and the weighting used to compensate may not be accurate. Another problem noted by the Ford campaign is that the poll estimated 90% of those surveyed were registered voters, when in fact only about 75% of adults are registered in Tennessee. The poll also estimated turnout at 60% to determine "likely voters", when in fact turnout has been closer to 50% in recent mid-term elections.

But one possible concern for the Ford campaign (which they have not talked about) is the "15% Lie" effect, in which white voters tell pollsters they will vote for a black candidate to appear "politically correct" but then don't. (Off the topic, but the Political Wire post referenced here mentions a very interesting article about the changing demographics and racial attitudes in the South owing to migration from other parts of the country.)

The bottom line is that the polls are all over the place and possibly meaningless at this point, but there does seem to be some movement in Corker's favor. The good news for Democrats, however, is that very few people expected it to be this close. So in that regard, Ford has run a smart campaign to overcome numerous obstacles, while the Corker campaign has underperformed despite retooling, outspending, and going on the attack.

On the issues, Ford is running right of center on national security, taxes, immigration, and gay marriage, and takes a more moderate stance on other domestic issues such as health care, education, and jobs and the economy. His position on Iraq is centered around establishing three decentralized states for the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds with equitable sharing of oil revenues. He has also called for Rumsfeld's resignation on several occasions. Despite voting for the war, Ford says our strategy isn't working and has put criticism of the Bush administration's Iraq policy front and center in all three debates and on the campaign trail.

Corker ran hard to the right during the primaries to overcome his reputation as a moderate against two bona fide conservatives, but has since moderated his positions somewhat for the general election. He has even adopted some of Ford's ideas on health care. He stood with the Bush administration's "stay the course" policy in Iraq, but had to adjust when Bush recently backed away from that and claimed he never said it. (Corker claimed he never said it, too, but both are captured on dozens of videos uttering the phrase.) Corker has also recently become openly critical of Rumsfeld, perhaps following Ford's lead.

On abortion, Corker says he is anti-abortion and has the National Right to Life endorsement to prove it, but the Tennessee Right to Life organization did not follow suit because of Corker's pro-choice position in his failed 1994 bid for the GOP senate nomination. Ford says he is against abortion, but does not believe medical procedures involving a woman's right to choose should be criminalized. He has also sponsored bi-partisan legislation that would reduce abortions by 95% in ten years.

What it may come down to is a party line vote (which favors Corker), but independents and swing voters could push the election either way.

Ford will pick up some moderates, but will likely lose some liberal Democrat votes because of his vote for the war, his vote for the Military Commissions Act, and his positions on gay marriage and other conservative issues. He may pick up a few votes from disgruntled Republicans who are concerned about the Iraq war and deficit spending, but it is unlikely there will be enough defectors to help him significantly or hurt Corker's chances with his own party.

Corker will also pick up some moderates and independents who lean Republican, and possibly a few Democrats who have concerns about Ford's family ties. Corker's negative campaigning may pay off, too, resulting in some votes from "low information" voters who are easily swayed by the "liberal voting record" and other charges leveled at Ford.

The "X factor" could be who stays home.

Some Republicans may be disillusioned with their party, but can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. They know their candidate for Governor, Jim Bryson, is going to lose and may not even break 30%. In East Tennessee, their candidates for the House of Representatives are going to win by a landslide. So some may feel it just isn't worth their trouble. But, the anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot might help overcome some voter apathy, giving Republicans a slight get-out-the-vote advantage, especially with "values voters."

Some Democrats may not be happy with a candidate who is running so far to the right, but would never vote for a Republican. They know their candidate for Governor, incumbent Phil Bredesen (who is also running to the right) will win in a landslide. And here in East Tennessee (where Ford must do well to win) the other Democratic candidates for Congress don't stand a much of a chance. So they, too, might feel it isn't worth their trouble.

And voters on both sides are disgusted with the ugly, negative campaigning (although Ford gets a bad rap for this because it has mostly come from the other side).

But all that's just my opinion, and I could be wrong. It's anybody's guess at this point.

On the campaign front, there were other significant developments this week.

Bob Corker injected $1.35 million of personal funds into the campaign yesterday, bringing the total to $2 million (counting $650,000 last week) and more than $4 million counting the primary. Yesterday's move triggered the "millionaire's clause", which raises the limit for individual contributions to the Ford campaign from $2100 to $12,600. Ford is well connected and should have no problem matching Corker dollar for dollar. (This race will go down as the most expensive in Tennessee history, with estimates of total expenditures reaching nearly $40 million.)

The question is, does this come too late in the campaign to help either candidate? According to a local TV station in Knoxville, candidates can place ad buys for the weekend until close of business Friday. They said that Corker already had buys in place and that Ford placed buys early yesterday morning, possibly in anticipation of Corker's cash injection. They said that they have to clear their inventory to make equal time for either candidate who wants it (which upsets local advertisers), so Tennesseans can expect an even heavier barrage of ads this weekend.

(Ford is staying mostly on message, with a few negative ads attacking Corker's record as Mayor of Chattanooga and some defensive counter-attack ads. Corker is going all out negative, with attacks on Ford's voting record, his family ties, and ads charging that he voted to give "abortion pills to school children" and that he sided with Clinton to "pardon terrorists.")

Corker's $2 million cash infusion suggests that either a) they sense victory and this is insurance to seal the deal, or b) there are problems with their internal numbers (which they have not been reporting) and they are pulling out all the stops.

Either way, the Tennessee U.S. Senate race is center stage in the battle for control of Congress, and Tennessee may be the "last stand" for the GOP Southern Strategy and Karl Rove's "firewall" operation in the 2006 mid-term election.

UPDATE: Around the blogosphere, DailyKos and MyDD have today both written off Ford's chances in Tennessee. (Kos said earlier that he "won't cry" when Ford doesn't win. This was in response to Ford's comments on the NJ gay marriage ruling. See above re. liberal Democrat views of Ford's conservative positions.)

Ed. note: reference to Rove visit to Nashville removed because Corker campaign spokesperson said no such meeting took place.