Hurricane Chris and the global warming debate

With ex-Tropical Storm Chris now gaining steam off the coast of Puerto Rico, we have the first hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season approaching landfall. It's a long way off, but the current projection puts it straight into the volatile Gulf Coast.

Since this spring, scientists have been predicting an especially active 2006 hurricane season, with 16-17 named storms. Significantly warmer ocean temperatures this year are adding to the dangerous mix.

Along with the record-setting heat wave sweeping the country (and world), hurricane predictions are raising questions about a link to global warming. On one side of the question, a recent article in the journal Science questions the link between rising temperatures and increases in hurricane strength.

The article was held up by critics as proof that global warming warnings are overblown, although reality all the study by Christopher W. Landsea et al. argues is that pre-1990 hurricane data is uneven, so the data isn't conclusive. As Landsea told the Florida Sun-Sentinel last week, "he did not dispute global warming was occurring or that it could influence hurricanes."

There's also still a body of evidence that maintains the link is real. As Kerry Emmanuel of MIT, whose research was the target of the Science article, argues:

"They ignore the most significant finding from my Nature paper -- that Atlantic hurricane activity is highly correlated with sea surface temperature, which is comparatively well-measured," Emanuel said by e-mail from the Queen Mary 2, where he is lecturing on storms. "This cannot be explained away by invoking rather qualitative arguments about data quality."

All of the scientists in the controversy agree on one thing: that global warming is real and largely a result of human factors -- a consensus still not embraced by current leaders in Congress, as Energy and Environment Daily (reg. required) reveals in this dispatch today:

Continued Republican House and Senate majorities would likely mean more of the same on climate. House Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said he would oppose global warming mandates if Republicans control the 110th Congress. "I think the information is not adequate yet for us to do anything meaningful," he said.

(H/T Think Progress)